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© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press.Genetic clustering is a popular method for characterizing variation in transmission rates for rapidly evolving viruses, and could potentially be used to detect outbreaks in 'near real time'. However, the statistical properties of clustering are poorly understood in this context, and there are no objective guidelines for setting clustering criteria. Here, we develop a new statistical framework to optimize a genetic clustering method based on the ability to forecast new cases. We
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