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The model optimization routine resulted in four metabolites that most strongly associated with actual eGFR in the discovery cohort (F = 128.9, P = 7×10-54, R2 = 0.724). A model using the ratio of two other metabolites, urinary alanine/citrate, showed the best association with future annual change in eGFR (F = 51.07, P = 7.26×10-12, R2 = 0.15. This association remained significant after adjustment for clinical risk markers including height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV). Results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusion


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