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An outlier bet is a wager on a low-probability event with disproportionate returns. Learn to identify such opportunities and understand the logic of this strategy. The Outlier Bet Strategy Finding Value in Highly Improbable Outcomes To capitalize on a statistical irregularity, directly compare a team's recent performance metrics–like expected goals (xG) over the last five games–against their season-long average. A discrepancy exceeding 30% often signals a pricing error from the market, creating a window for a high-value speculation. This requires moving past
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